Çifter, AtillaErhan, GözdeVardar, Nevzat BarışAkay, Gokhan H.2025-08-142025-08-142025Çifter, A., Erhan, G., Vardar, N. B., & Akay, G. H. (2025). The effect of unorthodox monetary policy on inflation in Türkiye: evidence from the synthetic control Method. Applied Economics Letters, 1-7. 10.1080/13504851.2025.25229101350-4851https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12939/5871This note examines the effect of unorthodox monetary policy on inflation in Türkiye after mid-2018. Using the Synthetic Control Method, we construct a synthetic counterpart to estimate the country’s inflation trajectory had it pursued an orthodox policy framework. We find that inflation could have remained at around 20% under a traditional monetary policy instead of rising until it peaked at 85% in 2023. The evidence reveals that repeated liquidity injections and interest rate cuts–despite rising inflation–led to severe price instability. Our findings highlight the economic risks associated with deviating from orthodox policy frameworks and emphasize the importance of stable, rule-based policies in maintaining price stability.eninfo:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccessInflationsynthetic controlTürkiyeUnorthodox monetary policyArticle10.1080/13504851.2025.25229102-s2.0-105008986208Q2WOS:001513431400001Q3