Yazar "Berker, A. Nihat" seçeneğine göre listele

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  • Küçük Resim
    Öğe
    COVID-19 modeling based on real geographic and population data
    (Turkiye Klinikleri, 2023) Baysazan, Emir; Berker, A. Nihat; Mandal, Hasan; Kaygusuz, Hakan
    Background/aim: Intercity travel is one of the most important parameters for combating a pandemic. The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in different computational studies involving intercity connections. In this study, the effects of intercity connections during an epidemic such as COVID-19 are evaluated using a new network model. Materials and methods: This model considers the actual geographic neighborhood and population density data. This new model is applied to actual Turkish data by means of provincial connections and populations. A Monte Carlo algorithm with a hybrid lattice model is applied to a lattice with 8802 data points. Results: Around Monte Carlo step 70, the number of active cases in Türkiye reaches up to 8.0% of the total population, which is followed by a second wave at around Monte Carlo step 100. The number of active cases vanishes around Monte Carlo step 160. Starting with İstanbul, the epidemic quickly expands between steps 60 and 100. Simulation results fit the actual mortality data in Türkiye. Conclusion: This model is quantitatively very efficient in modeling real-world COVID-19 epidemic data based on populations and geographical intercity connections, by means of estimating the number of deaths, disease spread, and epidemic termination.
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    Öğe
    Electric-field induced phase transitions in capillary electrophoretic systems
    (Aip Publishing, 2021) Kaygusuz, Hakan; Erim, F. Bedia; Berker, A. Nihat
    The movement of particles in a capillary electrophoretic system under electroosmotic flow was modeled using Monte Carlo simulation with the Metropolis algorithm. Two different cases with repulsive and attractive interactions between molecules were taken into consideration. Simulation was done using a spin-like system, where the interactions between the nearest and second closest neighbors were considered in two separate steps of the modeling study. A total of 20 different cases with different rates of interactions for both repulsive and attractive interactions were modeled. The movement of the particles through the capillary is defined as current. At a low interaction level between molecules, a regular electroosmotic flow is obtained; on the other hand, with increasing interactions between molecules, the current shows a phase transition behavior. The results also show that a modular electroosmotic flow can be obtained for separations by tuning the ratio between molecular interactions and electric field strength.
  • Küçük Resim
    Öğe
    The effect of weekend curfews on epidemics: A Monte Carlo simulation
    (2021) Kaygusuz, Hakan; Berker, A. Nihat
    The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic is being responded with various methods, applying vaccines, experimental treatment options, total lockdowns or partial curfews. Weekend curfews are among the methods for reducing the number of infected persons and this method is practically applied in some countries such as Turkey. In this study, the effect of weekend curfews on reducing the spread of a contagious disease, such as COVID-19, is modeled using a Monte Carlo algorithm with a hybrid lattice model. In the simulation setup, a fictional country with three towns and 26,610 citizens were used as a model. Results indicate that applying a weekend curfew reduces the ratio of ill cases from 2 0.23 to 0.15. The results also show that applying personal precautions such as social distancing is important for reducing the number of cases and deaths. If the probability of disease spread can be reduced to 0.1, in that case the death ratio can be minimized down to 0.