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    Effects of hurricanes Irene and Sandy in New Jersey: Traffic patterns and highway disruptions during evacuations
    (Kluwer Academic Publishers, 2015) Li, Jian; Özbay, Kaan; Bartın, Bekir
    This paper describes a quantitative analysis of traffic patterns and highway disruptions during Hurricane Irene and Sandy evacuations in New Jersey (NJ). This empirical study is based on multiple traffic and event data collected by various transportation agencies in NJ. In the first part of the paper, the temporal and spatial traffic patterns in NJ during Irene and Sandy evacuations were explored, and a comparative assessment of evacuation departure models was conducted based on the empirical traffic data. In the second part, we explored the frequency and geographic distribution of highway disruptions (vehicle accidents/incidents, incidents such as downed trees or road flooding caused by extreme winds and heavy rains, and highway bottlenecks) during Irene and Sandy evacuations and pre-landfall periods. The empirical patterns observed in this study can be used to improve real-world emergency response operations and evacuation models. The empirical findings may also benefit hurricane evacuation planning in areas with similar circumstances as NJ. © 2015, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.
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    Empirical evacuation response curve during hurricane Irene in Cape may county, New Jersey
    (Sage Publications Inc, 2013) Li, Jian; Özbay, Kaan; Bartın, Bekir; Iyer, Shrisan; Carnegie, Jon A.
    Understanding evacuation response behavior is critical for public officials in deciding when to issue emergency evacuation orders for an impending hurricane. Such behavior is typically measured by an evacuation response curve that represents the proportion of total evacuation demand over time. This study analyzes evacuation behavior and constructs an evacuation response curve on the basis of traffic data collected during Hurricane Irene in 2011 in Cape May County, New Jersey. The evacuation response curve follows a general S-shape with sharp upward changes in slope after the issuance of mandatory evacuation notices. These changes in slope represent quick response behavior, which may be caused in part by an easily mobilized tourist population, lack of hurricane evacuation experience, or the nature of the location, in this case a rural area with limited evacuation routes. Moreover, the widely used S-curves with different mathematical functions and the state-of-the-art behavior models are calibrated and compared with empirical data. The results show that the calibrated S-curves with logit and Rayleigh functions fit empirical data better. The evacuation behavior analysis and calibrated evacuation response models from this hurricane evacuation event may benefit evacuation planning in similar areas. In addition, traffic data used in this study may also be valuable for the comparative analysis of traffic patterns between the evacuation periods and regular weekdays and weekends.