Empirical evacuation response curve during hurricane Irene in Cape may county, New Jersey
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Tarih
2013
Dergi Başlığı
Dergi ISSN
Cilt Başlığı
Yayıncı
Sage Publications Inc
Erişim Hakkı
info:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess
Özet
Understanding evacuation response behavior is critical for public officials in deciding when to issue emergency evacuation orders for an impending hurricane. Such behavior is typically measured by an evacuation response curve that represents the proportion of total evacuation demand over time. This study analyzes evacuation behavior and constructs an evacuation response curve on the basis of traffic data collected during Hurricane Irene in 2011 in Cape May County, New Jersey. The evacuation response curve follows a general S-shape with sharp upward changes in slope after the issuance of mandatory evacuation notices. These changes in slope represent quick response behavior, which may be caused in part by an easily mobilized tourist population, lack of hurricane evacuation experience, or the nature of the location, in this case a rural area with limited evacuation routes. Moreover, the widely used S-curves with different mathematical functions and the state-of-the-art behavior models are calibrated and compared with empirical data. The results show that the calibrated S-curves with logit and Rayleigh functions fit empirical data better. The evacuation behavior analysis and calibrated evacuation response models from this hurricane evacuation event may benefit evacuation planning in similar areas. In addition, traffic data used in this study may also be valuable for the comparative analysis of traffic patterns between the evacuation periods and regular weekdays and weekends.
Açıklama
BARTIN, BEKIR/0000-0001-6941-228X
Anahtar Kelimeler
Empirical Evacuation, Response Curve, During Hurricane Irene In Cape
Kaynak
Transportation Research Record
WoS Q Değeri
Q3
Scopus Q Değeri
Q2
Cilt
Sayı
2376
