A Comprehensive Survey of Predicting stock market prices: an analysis of traditional statistical models and machine-learning techniques
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Tarih
2024
Yazarlar
Dergi Başlığı
Dergi ISSN
Cilt Başlığı
Yayıncı
American Institute of Physics
Erişim Hakkı
info:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess
Özet
The stock market has witnessed a remarkable surge in popularity in recent years, attracting investors from all walks of life. However, predicting stock values remains a daunting task due to financial markets' inherent unpredictability and complexity. Despite these challenges, the stock market offers a dynamic and ever-changing platform for traders to invest in shares, with the potential for significant gains and losses. For investors, accurate forecasting of stock prices is crucial as it provides invaluable insights into a company's financial health and growth prospects. With this information, investors can make informed decisions, mitigate risks, and capitalize on lucrative opportunities in the market. As a result, extensive research has been dedicated to developing effective prediction methods, leveraging various mathematical models and machine-learning techniques. This research paper delves into the realm of stock market prediction, explicitly focusing on evaluating different machine-learning styles. The primary objective is to comprehensively analyze and compare the performance of these techniques in forecasting stock market behavior. By understanding the strengths and limitations of each method, investors, financial analysts, and market participants can gain critical knowledge to optimize their trading strategies and decision-making processes. To achieve this goal, the study explores an array of machine-learning algorithms, ranging from traditional linear regression models to sophisticated deep-learning approaches. These algorithms leverage historical stock market data, macroeconomic indicators, company financials, and sentiment analysis, among other factors, to predict future price movements and market trends. In addition to performance comparison, the research paper examines the impact of various factors that influence the effectiveness of these machine-learning techniques. Factors such as data quality, feature engineering, model selection, hyperparameter tuning, and market conditions play pivotal roles in the accuracy of predictions. Understanding these factors will aid in refining the model-building process and enhancing overall forecasting capabilities. The study encompasses an extensive dataset spanning multiple stock markets and periods, ensuring robustness and reliability in the findings. Performance evaluation metrics, including mean squared error, accuracy, precision, recall, and F1 score, will be employed to assess the predictive power of the machine-learning techniques objectively. Furthermore, the paper investigates the potential of ensemble methods, combining the strengths of multiple models to achieve enhanced prediction accuracy. Ensemble techniques, such as bagging, boosting, and stacking, have proven effective in diverse domains and are expected to demonstrate their value in stock market prediction. By the end of this research, readers will have a comprehensive understanding of the landscape of machine-learning techniques applied to stock market prediction. The findings will offer insights into which methods are most suitable for different market conditions and will aid in establishing best practices for effective and reliable stock market forecasting. In conclusion, this research paper serves as a valuable resource for investors, financial analysts, and researchers, thoroughly assessing machine-learning techniques' efficacy in predicting stock market behavior. It contributes to the growing body of knowledge in financial technology. It underscores the critical role of data-driven decision-making in navigating the complexities of the modern stock market.
Açıklama
Anahtar Kelimeler
BILSTM, Deep learning approaches, Historical stock market data, Linear regression models, LSTM, Macroeconomic indicators, Stock price prediction, Stock Market
Kaynak
AIP Conference Proceedings
WoS Q Değeri
Scopus Q Değeri
Q4
Cilt
3107
Sayı
1
Künye
Patel, D., Patel, W., Koyuncu, H. (2024). A Comprehensive Survey of Predicting stock market prices: an analysis of traditional statistical models and machine-learning techniques. AIP Conference Proceedings, 3107(1). 10.1063/5.0208904
