The effect of unorthodox monetary policy on inflation in Türkiye: evidence from the synthetic control Method

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dc.contributor.authorÇifter, Atilla
dc.contributor.authorErhan, Gözde
dc.contributor.authorVardar, Nevzat Barış
dc.contributor.authorAkay, Gokhan H.
dc.date.accessioned2025-08-14T15:16:17Z
dc.date.available2025-08-14T15:16:17Z
dc.date.issued2025
dc.departmentFakülteler, İktisadi, İdari ve Sosyal Bilimler Fakültesi, Ekonomi Bölümü
dc.description.abstractThis note examines the effect of unorthodox monetary policy on inflation in Türkiye after mid-2018. Using the Synthetic Control Method, we construct a synthetic counterpart to estimate the country’s inflation trajectory had it pursued an orthodox policy framework. We find that inflation could have remained at around 20% under a traditional monetary policy instead of rising until it peaked at 85% in 2023. The evidence reveals that repeated liquidity injections and interest rate cuts–despite rising inflation–led to severe price instability. Our findings highlight the economic risks associated with deviating from orthodox policy frameworks and emphasize the importance of stable, rule-based policies in maintaining price stability.
dc.identifier.citationÇifter, A., Erhan, G., Vardar, N. B., & Akay, G. H. (2025). The effect of unorthodox monetary policy on inflation in Türkiye: evidence from the synthetic control Method. Applied Economics Letters, 1-7. 10.1080/13504851.2025.2522910
dc.identifier.doi10.1080/13504851.2025.2522910
dc.identifier.issn1350-4851
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-105008986208
dc.identifier.scopusqualityQ2
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12939/5871
dc.identifier.wosWOS:001513431400001
dc.identifier.wosqualityQ3
dc.indekslendigikaynakScopus
dc.indekslendigikaynakWeb of Science
dc.institutionauthorÇifter, Atilla
dc.institutionauthorVardar, Nevzat Barış
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherRoutledge
dc.relation.ispartofApplied Economics Letters
dc.relation.publicationcategoryMakale - Uluslararası Hakemli Dergi - Kurum Öğretim Elemanı
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess
dc.subjectInflation
dc.subjectsynthetic control
dc.subjectTürkiye
dc.subjectUnorthodox monetary policy
dc.titleThe effect of unorthodox monetary policy on inflation in Türkiye: evidence from the synthetic control Method
dc.typeArticle

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